AUD/USD Performance Chart as at 3:30 a.m. Singapore time, 05/05/11

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HISTORICAL DETAILS 

% Change

1 Wk -0.61%

1 Month 4.27%

3 Months 6.43%

6 Months 7.39%

1 Year 16.68%

 

52 WEEK

High 1.1012

Low 0.8067

 

BLOOMBERG MEDIAN FORECASTS

Q2 2011 1.03

Q3 2011 1.03

Q4 2011 1.01

Q1 2011 1.00

 

DAILY DETAIL

The aussie stumbled again today, falling about 135 pips in just a few hours. Since the second of May, the AUD has fallen 272 pips, or about 2.5% against its American counterpart. Today’s drop for the AUD is by no means a sign that confidence is lacking in the Australian economy or its currency. Instead, the close correlation that aussie shares with commodities prices has been the real driver. As US economic data falters, commodity bulls typically become a bit shyer when it comes to expressing their opinions through market positions. Today was no exception, with a lower than expected reading on employment by ADP as well a substantial drop in the ISM Non-manufacturing PMI reading. From an economic perspective - as well as from a central bank support perspective - the AUD holds a clear upper hand to the dollar. That being said, with the AUD/USD pair already climbing from .9700 in the middle of March to just over 1.1000 a couple of days ago, with not many pull backs in between, traders could be starting to speculate that even with everything going for it, the AUD may have over-stepped its bounds a bit. Dan Cook, Chicago