Monday, July 4, 2011

GBP/USD Performance Chart as at 1:00 p.m. Singapore time, 4/07/11

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HISTORICAL DETAILS 
% Change
1 Wk 0.56%
1 Month -1.78%
3 Months -1.33%
6 Months 3.82%
1 Year 5.96%
 
52 WEEK
High 1.6747
Low 1.4874
 
BLOOMBERG MEDIAN FORECASTS
Q2 2011 1.63
Q3 2011 1.63
Q4 2011 1.63
Q1 2012 1.62
 
DAILY DETAIL
Sterling managed to close higher during Friday’s session despite a worse-than-expected manufacturing PMI figures out of the UK. The UK manufacturing PMI index fell to 51.3 versus expectations of 52.2, the lowest level in 21 months. Within the report, new manufacturing orders fell for the second consecutive month, while the increase in new export business was very weak as well. The slowdown in the manufacturing sector has been one of a number of factors weighing on UK growth. This has seen the Bank of England take a view that the economy is too weak for an interest rate rise, despite inflation being above comfortable levels. If it wasn’t for the recent increase in risk appetite, cable would have probably sold off. From a technical perspective, sterling currently sits at resistance around the 1.6050 – 1.6070 zone, which is a significant May low. If the sellers do take control, then we could expect to see a retest of the recent soft patch around the 1.59 level. Tonight, the market will be focusing on the latest construction PMI reading due at 6.30pm; as it stands, it is expecting a figure of 53.6, down from 54 last month. Any weakness could spark further selling in the pair, which could be exaggerated by profit taking in the likes of the euro if it plays out. GBP/USD was last at 1.6081. Ben Potter, Australia
 

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