Monday, July 4, 2011

USD/JPY Performance Chart as at 1:00 p.m. Singapore time, 4/07/11

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HISTORICAL DETAILS 
% Change
1 Wk -0.14%
1 Month -0.15%
3 Months -4.82%
6 Months -1.17%
1 Year -7.79%
 
52 WEEK
High 89.16
Low 76.25
 
BLOOMBERG MEDIAN FORECASTS
Q2 2011 83.00
Q3 2011 83.00
Q4 2011 85.00
Q1 2012 88.00
 
DAILY DETAIL
After pulling back from a high of 81.14 in US trade on Friday, Asian participants continued to be unconvinced with the pair moving below 81.00. Two-year yields don’t seem to be getting the same selling attention as ten-year yields (which saw the biggest upwards move in two years last week), and as a consequence, USD/JPY has struggled to find upside. JPY crosses seem to be generally supportive on risk appetite, with the yen down against most risk currencies (with the exception of the AUD which was hurt by weaker-than-expected retail sales and building approval numbers). Interestingly, BoJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the Japanese economy continues to face downward pressure, mainly on output, but is showing signs of picking up. He also mentioned the global economy continues to recover, albeit at a slower pace. There is a huge amount of economic data out in the coming days, with US services ISM and ADP private sector payrolls being a lead in for the week’s highlight, Friday’s non-farm payrolls. With US treasuries on an upward trajectory, strong readings should see the USD rally and push up towards 82.00. However, we still believe the better upside remains in the risk currencies with AUD/JPY, SEK/JPY and CAD/JPY being our preferred ways to play the increasingly positive sentiment. Chris Weston, Australia
 

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