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HISTORICAL DETAILS
% Change
1 Wk -1.55%
1 Month -4.18%
3 Months -3.92%
6 Months -4.97%
1 Year -10.43%
52 WEEK
High 86.99
Low 76.25
BLOOMBERG MEDIAN FORECASTS
Q2 2011 83.00
Q3 2011 81.00
Q4 2011 85.00
Q1 2012 86.00
DAILY DETAIL
Overnight, USD/JPY traded down to 76.30, only five points off the all-time low set back in March. This came following the release of further economic data showing that the US is slowing down. Friday showed an overall deterioration in US GDP, and last night we saw US manufacturing ISM plunging to 50.9 from 55.3. Interestingly, the employment component declined to the extent that economists have revised their assumptions for this Friday's non-farms jobs report. US treasury yields fell significantly, with ten-year yields dropping to 2.71%, their lowest level since November 2010. We saw a slight re-bound back above 77.00 (currently 77.35), after different US officials hinted they would vote the debt plan through both the House and the Senate, resulting in little reaction in USD/JPY when it was actually passed in the House of Representatives. The talk in late US and early Asian trade, widely spread by Japanese publication the Nikkei, was whether we would see intervention from the Japanese authorities. On the back of the story there were a number of macro accounts buying into USD/JPY, while Mr Noda suggested that he is closely monitoring currency markets and communicating with the BoJ and overseas authorities. At the end of the day, this is a case of USD weakness as opposed to JPY strength. If it do decide to sell JPY, how long will the bounce last? Ben Potter, Australia
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