Monday, October 22, 2012

Thai group can counter any OUE bid for F&N: CIMB

OUE’s talks on a potential F&N offer may herald a bidding war, CIMB says, adding it will be positive for Thai Beverage as it will crystallise its 29% F&N stake’s value.

“We expect OUE to announce a higher bid, whether acting with another party or alone, and TCC to counter offer.” It notes F&N’s F&B business is “highly complementary” to ThaiBev’s non-alcoholic beverage business; “TCC/ThaiBev will not want to lose it without a fight.”

It believes TCC Assets has the means to counter offer, noting a counter bid at $11.22/share, the high end of the independent financial advisor’s estimated fair-value range, would be a total consideration of $11.4 billion; adjusted for the APB cash on F&N’s books, it would be an “achievable” $5.8 billion from TCC, it estimates.

“If TCC ends up losing, it will not reap the synergies, but enjoy a divestment gain. ThaiBev stands to gain between $300 million and $1.3 billion for a bid in the range of $9.50 to $12.” CIMB keeps ThaiBev at Outperform with $0.60 target. The stock is up 1.2% at $0.425.

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