Thursday, November 1, 2012

Goldman tips downside risks to Golden Agri earnings

Goldman Sachs tips downside risks to Golden Agri’s earnings after its subsidiary, Sinar Mas Agro Resources (SMART), reported 3Q12 results.

It notes SMART, which comprised about 32% of Golden Agri’s 2011 fresh-fruit-bunch production and owns all of its refineries, reported 3Q12 core net profit excluding forex rose 1% on-quarter to IDR513 billion ($65.2 million), with 10% on-quarter FFB production growth and 29% on-quarter sales growth offset by EBIT margins’ decline to 10% from 2Q12’s 12%.

While noting SMART is only one part of Golden Agri’s operations, with its earnings trend not necessarily reflecting the wider group, GS adds the flat on-quarter performance indicates downside risks to its 2012 forecasts, which are in-line with consensus, especially if the refineries didn’t sell through and liquidate as much inventory as expected.

The house expects Golden Agri to report 3Q12 core net profit of US$151 million ($184.3 million), up 33% on-quarter, on seasonally higher production and strong volume sales offset by lower CPO prices; results are due Nov 12. Goldman keeps a Neutral call. The stock is down 1.6% at $0.62 with 59.5 million shares changing hands.

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