DBS Vickers Securities in a Feb 23 research report says: "Excluding biological asset and one-off gains, Wilmar booked US$264.5 million (125% y-o-y; -40% q-o-q) net profit in 4Q11 - significantly below our expectations of US$451 million.
"This brought FY2011 core profit to US$1,517 million (+44% y-o-y). Including BA gains, 4Q11 net profit was US$500 million. Drop in oilseeds and grains pretax margin was the main reason for underperformance. Wilmar is expanding its Indonesian refining capacity by 50-60%.
"We expect the bulk of this to appear in FY2013; thereby offsetting weaker margins elsewhere. However, we expect crushing margins in China to ease towards 2.5% this year (from 4% in previous assumption) - as it may take longer to rationalise the overcapacity. Thus we cut our FY2012F-2014F earnings by 7-9% and target price to $5.80. MAINTAIN BUY."
"This brought FY2011 core profit to US$1,517 million (+44% y-o-y). Including BA gains, 4Q11 net profit was US$500 million. Drop in oilseeds and grains pretax margin was the main reason for underperformance. Wilmar is expanding its Indonesian refining capacity by 50-60%.
"We expect the bulk of this to appear in FY2013; thereby offsetting weaker margins elsewhere. However, we expect crushing margins in China to ease towards 2.5% this year (from 4% in previous assumption) - as it may take longer to rationalise the overcapacity. Thus we cut our FY2012F-2014F earnings by 7-9% and target price to $5.80. MAINTAIN BUY."
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